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On Guinea and Regional Stability

Author: Brima Karl Samura - Freetown

The Republic of Guinea has in recent times gained prominence within media circles, and the spotlight continues to beam in that direction. Guinea for the past three decades has been experiencing what specialists in peace and conflict studies would refer to as “negative peace”. This implies a situation in which an unholy calm exists. It is a situation where there is no seeming conflict or political disorder and where everything looks normal on the surface level. People living under such situations often remain silent, less agitated and non confrontational. However, underneath the surface of such calm, pressure mounts, resentment increases often giving way to violent outbursts which are often put down with attendant cruel and brutal force. This has been the case in neighboring Guinea which has been under Military rule for over three decades. The regime of the late Military leader, Lansana Conteh who came to power through a coup in 1984 after the death of the dictator Seku Toure, could best be described as autocratic, despotic and uncompromising with little or no regard for Human Rights and civil Liberties. Opposition is often frowned at, only resulting into little concessions granted to opposing political forces after some social and political ramblings. (Photo: Brima Karl Samura)

Jean-Marie Dore - Guinea's new Prime Minister

Guinea as it is today is still contending the forces of despotism. The death of Lansana Conteh has worsened the situation as there were no deliberate arrangements made for a smooth transition of power to civilian democratic rule. It was therefore not surprising for Musa Dadis Kamara to easily and without any potential contention grab power through a bloodless coup. Guinea’s leaders have not made any significant progress in the advancement that country as the Country remains to be one of the poorest countries in Africa and indeed the world ranking number … in the united Nations World development Index.

Dadis Kamara was received by some sections of the Guinean society with some kind of popular appeal. However being a political neophyte whose clear role and vision as a military personnel cannot be easily discerned, made a bad situation even worse as his trigger friendly men opened fire on opposition supporters who were expressing their political opinions at Guinea’s National Stadium. Indeed this massacre which received worldwide international condemnation served as a catalyst to bring Dadis Kamara to his knees after attempting to play the blame game by trying to arrest one of his aids whom he apparently wanted to ‘scapegoatize’ as acting on his own rather than orders from (Dadis) himself. Lt. Dakite it seemed was unwilling to swallow the hook and resorted to revolting against his boss by opening fire on him nearly killing him in an attempt to evade arrest.

Guinea shares borders with six West African countries

With Dadis’s back facing Guinea while recuperating in Morocco from injuries sustained during the shootout, events that unfolded showed that the long absence of democracy in Guinea has had deep rooted consequences on the political life of the country. His absence created a vacuum which almost resulted into another unpredictable political upheaval. The number two man in the CNDD junta Sekouba Konate who also happens to be the defense Minister has proven to be very instrumental in enhancing stability by conceding and spearheading some form of smooth political transition. Indeed it seems as if the international community was determined not to allow the return of Dadis Kamara to Guinea and Konate became the ultimate instrument to achieve this. The return of Dadis to Guinea is seen as critical to the stability of a nation which has indeed sucked the woes of despotism and which also unarguably has the potential to disrupt the fragile peace in the Mano River basin and the sub region as a whole. Dadis it seems was tricked by being flown to Burkina Faso instead of Guinea form Morocco which had come under serious pressure from the international community especially the United States. Dadis, it seems, was angered for being flown to Burkina Faso instead of Guinea where he is almost powerless and helpless conceding to a declaration that will eventually usher in a democratic era in Guinea if all goes well. Some of the provisions included in the declaration included, respect for civil liberties, including freedom of the press and opinion, the reorganization and reform of the Defense Forces and security, the creation of a National Transitional Council (CNT), deliberative political body, led by a religious figure and composed of one hundred and one members representing all segments of Guinean society; the appointment of a prime Minister from the Forum forces vives of Guinea, the formation of a government of National unity, the revision of electoral roles, the organization, within six months of the presidential election which will not include participating members of government of the National Transition Council, the Head of State Transition, members of the CNDD, the prime Minister, members of Government of National Unity and members of the Defense Forces and Security in activity.

Guinea’s West African neighbors include Ivory Coast, Senegal, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Like most countries in West African, Guinea shares a close affinity with these neighbors through cross cultural and commercial activities. Conflict in Guinea therefore is highly likely to have a ripple effect in the stability of the sub region. Sierra Leone, Liberia and the Ivory Coast are gradually revamping themselves from the effect of the various conflicts they have experienced and are largely succeeding in pushing democracy and good governance. West Africa is one of the wealthiest regions in Africa in terms of Mineral and Marine resources but remains to be the most challenged in terms of development. Unemployment, HIV AIDS, Malaria, Health Care and infrastructural development remain some of the greatest challenges and with the wars which were fought in Liberia Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast, instability in Guinea will prove disastrous for the sub region. It is thus worthwhile that the ECOWAS, AU and the UNITED NATIONS do whatever possible to prevent Guinea from sliding into conflict. Guinea like Sierra Leone, can brag of having one of the largest deposit of Bauxite in the World but it people can barely boast of a quality health care, water supply, Education and many other vital needs.

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On Guinea and Regional Stability

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